Uncertainty

Some questions/problems can be answered with certainty. For example, a crossword puzzle or math problems such as 3+4. However, most real world problems have uncertain answers. These might be important questions such as "what is the best way to counter global warming?," or more trivial such as "what color shirt should I wear today?" Although the answers may be complex, our minds and culture are oriented towards treating the problems as having certain answers. We don't have unlimited time to consider all possibilities, so we use judgment, often subconsciously, to simplify the problem so that we can answer it and move on.

Answers that are certain are often called "facts" or "universal truths." We tend to think of Math and Science as fields of certainty. 3+4 always equals 7. These are the types of problems that are the basis of our formal education. But the reality is that much more of math and science deal with uncertainty. In such cases, we can help narrow down the answers with certainty. For example, it is impossible to say exactly how many drops of water are in the ocean, but we can say with certainty that there are more than 5. We don't know what the next roll of a pair of standard dice will be, but we can be certain that the total will be less than 13. We can't be certain whether a flip of a coin will be heads or tails, but we can be certain that if we keep flipping, the coin will at some time land on tails.

Much of the focus of books and education in critical thinking teaches techniques that help us come up with certain answers. Mathematical logic is an example of this. But those tools are less useful for problems with uncertain answers. They can even give us a false sense of security if we oversimplify a problem as having a definitive answer when it is actually more complex. This is especially true when human behavior is involved. An answer may be factual, but we can't depend on others to accept the fact and act accordingly.

There are many resources on techniques that can be used to solve problems with certain answers. These can be rather simple and common, such as addition and subtraction, or quite complex, such as ways to split an atom. The focus of this website will be on uncertain problems, and especially with how our innate thinking, evolved over millennia, influences the ways we deal with uncertainty. The value is not only in helping ourselves better deal with uncertainty, but even more importantly, understanding how others may deal with uncertainty.

"The only thing to be certain of is that there's nothing to be certain of." - Common saying